Republican debate: Whatever happens in the debate, fundamentals could still matter

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Republican debate: Whatever happens in the debate, fundamentals could still matter
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Heading into the first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign cycle, it’s tempting to focus on minor but perhaps momentarily decisive details, such as whether Ron DeSantis was wise to outsource strategy to a committee that he’s legally barred from communicating with or whether Trump campaign…

Heading into the first presidential debate of the 2024 campaign cycle, it’s tempting to focus on minor but perhaps momentarily decisive details, such as whether Ron DeSantis was wise to outsource strategy to a committee that he’s legally barred from communicating with or whether Trump campaign spokesmen are to be allowed in the Fox News spin room.

The fundamentals in this case are that majorities of voters are inclined to reject each of the two most recent incumbent presidents, even though they register hefty majorities in polls of their party’s primary voters, 64% for Joe Biden and 55% for Donald Trump. It’s not hard to think of reasons why: Trump’s uncouth insults and vacillating policies, Biden’s visible aging and extreme policies, both men’s penchant for transparent untruths .

The Des Moines Register/NBC poll, conducted by the astonishingly good pollster J. Ann Selzer, showed Trump leading DeSantis by a 42-19% margin. That sounds like a whopping lead, and in a general election poll, where most voters tend to support their party’s candidates, it would be.

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