A holistic approach to addressing foodsecurity in Africa NatureFoodJnl
) are of higher magnitude than drops due to intracontinental trade effects , indicating that spillover effects to other African regions are limited. Local effects are pronounced in rainfed-dominated regions and in regions with a high self-sufficiency level , while they are minimal for regions with a strong reliance on imports . To a lesser extent, African consumers also respond to yield shocks in SEA. The magnitude of these responses is linked to the dependency on imports from SEA .
Overall differences in consumer response between socio-economic scenarios are small. However, for all regions except Egypt and RSouthAf, the consumption response to climatic anomalies occurring in SEA is lower under SSP1 —the scenario that assumes the least barriers to trade. We observed substantial temporal variations in consumption per capita when accounting for both trends and anomalies in the 2035–2065 time window for all regions and socio-economic narratives . While accounting for trends systematically increases the temporal variation compared with only considering anomalies, we also observed stark distinctions between socio-economic narratives.
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