If investors remain optimistic today, it’s possible we could see more strength in those areas, and also maybe in transports, semiconductor stocks, and trade-related barometers like Caterpillar (CAT) and Boeing (BA).
The optimism around trade comes as China agreed to buy more U.S. soybeans and pork. To figure out where trade negotiations stand, it’s sometimes helpful to see whether China’s buying agricultural products from the U.S. or sitting on its hands. Call it the pork prognosticator, if you want.If you like Fed speakers, today's your day. Five of them are on the calendar, including Vice Chair Richard Clarida, who’s scheduled to speak later this morning.
On the topic of economic growth, the government released its final gross domestic product number for Q2 today, leaving it unchanged at 2%. Not much to see there, really. Some economists think growth this quarter won’t be much different, either.You might not have guessed there’s an impeachment process going on, judging from how stocks acted Wednesday.
Bonds also fell pretty sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield starting Thursday back above 1.7%. That’s roughly in the middle of its recent range between 1.5% and 1.9%. Yields tend to rise when there’s more optimism—and less fear— about the economy.The consumer appears to remain healthy, at least if you look at Nike earnings. The rally there might have helped Consumer Discretionary stocks as a whole.
BUMPY RIDE: If you’ve been following transports or semiconductors in Q3, let’s hope you had your seatbelt comfortably fastened. It’s been a topsy-turvy road for both of these economically-sensitive sectors, with both getting a boost recently from trade hopes and what appears to be investors moving into more cyclical-oriented sectors and away from defensive ones.
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