The NFL Coaching Hot Seat Index forecasts rising temperatures in Washington and in Las Vegas.
. We know plenty of information about former NFL head coaches at the time of their firing, which can inform our expectations. What were their records with their teams, and how successful were they in the postseason, if they made it that far? How long had they gone since their last playoff appearance, and since their last playoff win? Team owners and front offices have given coaches with Super Bowl résumés more leeway, which can also be factored in.
Let’s look at Mike Nolan’s tenure with the San Francisco 49ers as an example of how our Coach Hot Seat Index functions. Nolan was hired in 2005; the club went 16-32 over his first three seasons, winning two fewer games in 2007 than it had in 2006, a downward arc that makes the CHSI quiver. The 49ers also missed the playoffs all three seasons. Based on those results, the model gave Nolan a 47 percent chance of being fired by the end of 2007.
The Coach Hot Seat Indicator simply looks at these factors and then assesses the likelihood a coach with a similar résumé would be fired. It doesn’t take into account external factors, such as front office changes, owner sentiment, tradition or the weight of local reputation.
by Pro Football Focus heading into the season. Not exactly a blueprint for the franchise to win its first playoff game since the 2005 season. And if the Commanders
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