The Russian force gathering on Ukraine's border would struggle to take and hold much Ukrainian territory. Still, tensions are rising
ALL IS DISQUIET on the Eastern front. On the border between Poland and Belarus, refugees from the Middle East are massing. They have been lured there by Alexander Lukashenko, the Kremlin-backed dictator of Belarus, with false promises of a new life in the West. On the Russian side of the Ukrainian border, it is soldiers that are gathering, in sufficient numbers to raise concern in America. And inside Russia,.
Nobody knows whether the troops are intended for action in Ukraine or Belarus, or simply for the intimidation of both—probably the most likely explanation. According to a European intelligence source, the Russian force is smaller than it was earlier in the year and therefore would struggle to take and hold much Ukrainian territory, although Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, estimates that it numbers 100,000 troops.
For now, at least, Russia’s goal of undermining Ukraine and plunging it into crisis may be better achieved by other means, such as disrupting its energy supplies. This month Russia halted coal exports there, exacerbating local fuel shortages. Some worry that Russia might curb gas shipments as well. “It’s a very disturbing trend,” says Yuriy Vitrenko, the head of Naftogaz, the state gas company.
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