Russia’s friends are a motley—and shrinking—crew

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Russia’s friends are a motley—and shrinking—crew
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Data collated by The Economist on a broad array of military, economic and diplomatic measures—call it the “Putin’s pals index”—show Russia’s apparently impressive geopolitical clout to be less so

plans to isolate Russia by surrounding us with a sanitary cordon have been a fiasco,” Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, gloated recently. “We are strengthening good neighbourly relations…with the international majority.” At first glance Mr Lavrov seems to have a point. On February 23rd, the day before the first anniversary ofand trade have held up surprisingly well. Mr Lavrov himself, meanwhile, has merrily racked up plenty of air miles visiting foreign capitals.

The categories are unweighted, so countries are scored on a simple total. This rough-and-ready index is not intended to capture the finer nuances of diplomatic stances that many countries adopt. But it provides a framework for assessing a country’s relationship with Russia and whether it could be vulnerable to coercion.

Yet Iran, which was determinedly non-aligned during the cold war, is divided over how much to cosy up to Moscow. Hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hope their support will be repaid with modern fighter jets and anti-aircraft missiles. But relative moderates in Iran’s foreign ministry worry about further antagonising the West or condoning the invasion of neighbouring countries—particularly since the Soviet Union conquered much of Iran during the second world war.

Russia is not just a big supplier of weapons. It has also become the arms dealer of last resort, gaining influence in countries that are cut off from Western supplies because of coups and human-rights abuses, such as Mali and the Central African Republic. Western arms embargoes “opened the door [for the Russians],” says J. Peter Pham, America’s special envoy for the Sahel under the Trump administration. “We can’t really blame the Malians for taking what they can get.

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