The slump in Turkey's lira in the wake of the Turkish military advance into...
LONDON - The slump in Turkey’s lira in the wake of the Turkish military advance into Syria has made it October’s worst performing major currency, a move that looks even starker considering most emerging market currencies have powered ahead.
The broader emerging markets rally has been underpinned by signs of a partial trade deal between the United States and China and by stimulus, but Turkey-watchers have been rattled by threats of international sanctions over its actions in Syria. “I’m struggling to see a positive trigger event at the moment,” said Allianz Global Investors emerging markets CIO Richard House. “It is just quite staggering what is going on.”JPMorgan identified the lira, along with Russia’s rouble, as the most exposed to political uncertainties. Goldman Sachs has warned about geopolitics and domestic economic policy, while Rabobank last week questioned whether the lira might be on the brink of another “currency crisis”.
The economy is now recovering but remains in a fragile state and the lira’s latest shakes show it clearly remains vulnerable. It may also have been aided by a relative lull in dollar bond repayments in recent months. But that lull is about to come to an end with about $17 billion worth of repayments due across the economy before the end of year, Allianz estimates.
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