Local news sources: Saudi officials have informed the U.S. of an imminent attack from Iran.
, Saudi Arabia has informed the U.S. of an imminent attack from Iran. This warning follows a report on Iranian state television showing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, telling a group of students marking the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran that the modern U.S. is “very vulnerable” and that the country is no longer the world’s dominant power.
There are comments from the Houthis themselves, in early October, about what they are going to do, and precedents of their previous Iran-backed attacks on Saudi Arabia to work with. Back on 2 October, Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Saree, wrote: “If the Saudi and Emirati [UAE] coalition continue to deprive our Yemeni people access to their resources, our military forces can, with God’s help, deprive them of their resources.
The net effect of the combined attack on Abqaiq and Khurais caused the temporary suspension of 5.7 million barrels per day of oil from Saudi Arabia. This equates to well over half of Saudi Arabia’s actual crude oil production capacity, not the capacity figure that Saudi has plucked out of nowhere for geopolitical power purposes in recent years, and resulted in the biggest rise in oil prices in a single day ever.
One particularly striking comment came from Saudi Arabia’s then-new oil minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, just after the attacks. He stated that the Kingdom planned to: “restore [its] production capacity to 11 million bpd by the end of September and recover [its] full capacity of 12 million bpd two months later.
As highlighted repeatedly by me in OilPrice.com, several other publications, and in my books on the oil markets, Saudi Arabia has stated for decades that it has a spare capacity of between 2.0-2.5 million bpd, implying – given the Kingdom’s fantasy 10 million bpd production figure during this time - total production capacity of 12.0-12.5 million bpd.
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