If the government’s not even going to invest in mitigating the current pandemic, don’t count on it spending big to prevent a possible future one. There’s another way to go at it: Vaccinate birds instead of people.
Scientists first identified bird flu in geese in Scotland back in 1959. Over the next four decades the virus evolved into the forms of HPAI that are now widespread, H5 and H7.
. The problem isn’t just that the doses expire after a few years. The bigger problem is that the HPAI virus, and other highly-pathogenic bird flu viruses, mutate constantly. Just like the human flu does. How big? Potentially billions of dollars annually as scientists identify the latest strain, industry develops a new vaccine and the government pays for many millions of doses—then everyone repeats the process in a year’s time. “It is a never-ending cycle of chasing virus evolution,” Moody said.
The main problem is the same: the bird flu virus mutates so fast that it’s hard to keep up. But at least the incentives are different. bird flu outbreaks are periodic and, so far, small in scale. When we produce human vaccines for bird flu, we tend not to use them—and they eventually go bad. In other words: Human vaccines for bird flu aren’t a waste, but they mightBy contrast, big outbreaks in birds happen all the time. There was a major outbreak in the U.S.
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