Polling suggests Reform UK's rise could force a historic political alliance in Scotland, with the SNP and Labour potentially forming a coalition.
Polling experts warn that a previously 'unthinkable' deal between Scotland's fiercest rivals for power could be on the cards if a rump of Reform MSPs cause 'chaos' at Holyrood. Current polling puts Reform UK on course to win around 12 of the 129 seats at the Holyrood election in spring 2026. Professor John Curtice said that in that scenario, the only way a Scottish government could be formed is with the acquiescence of Reform.
The alternative is a coalition across the nationalist-unionist divide. This could put Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar in an extremely awkward position – having to choose whether to make a deal with Reform UK or opt for a radical coalition with the SNP. Curtice said: 'What if Anas Sarwar rings Keir Starmer and says, 'I can do a deal with the SNP and I’ll be First Minister. Oh, but by the way, we’ve got to allow the SNP to campaign on independence.’ What happens then?' Nightmare scenarios for Sarwar and Sir Keir Starmer have looked increasingly likely since Reform UK began polling over 10 per cent in Scotland in recent months
Scottish Politics Reform UK SNP Labour Coalition
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