A new batch of polls has Elizabeth Warren faring poorly against Trump in some battleground states. ed_kilgore makes the case for not freaking out
The fear that she can’t beat the Big He is back. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images/Zach Gibson/Getty Images Like a fresh visitation of a recurring nightmare, a new state-by-state New York Times/Siena poll informs us that Donald Trump’s lookin’ pretty good for reelection, particularly if Elizabeth Warren is the nominee. All the old slurs against Warren that Democrats were beginning to shrug off — she’s too left wing, she’s a girl, she’s a cold and unlikable girl, etc.
As a public service, I’m going to push back against this gloom and suggest that it is premature if not misplaced, while acknowledging what we should have already understood and internalized about Trump’s underlying strength, at least in the Electoral College: Nothing about Trump’s path to reelection is new, and the Times/Siena survey just paints a particularly vivid road map of another very close election.
[O]n average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before. The stability of the president’s approval rating is a reason to think this pattern might hold again for a fourth cycle, at least for the three leading and already well-known Democrats tested in these polls.
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