NOAA researchers have predicted that an ocean-heating event known as El Niño is probably going to arrive in the next few months and persist into 2024.
The chance of the ocean-warming event known as El Niño hitting this year is now over 90%. It will likely begin in the coming months, and there is a good chance it will persist into 2024 and have a widespread impact, experts have warned.
Experts have suspected that an El Niño event could be on the horizon for some time. And on May 3, the World Meteorological Organization predicted there was a 60% chance that it would begin between May and July . ENSO cycle 101 The ENSO cycle is mainly linked to trade winds in the Pacific Ocean that blow westward along the equator. Normally, this blows warmer surface waters from South America toward Asia, which are in turn replaced by cooler deep ocean waters in a process known as upwelling, according to NOAA .
The last El Niño event occurred between February and August 2019 and was quite weak. Between July 2020 and March 2023, a rare triple-dip La Niña suppressed rising global temperatures.How strong will El Niño be? It's unclear exactly how strong this El Niño will become, but NOAA's predictions suggest there is an 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño, where sea surface temperatures will rise by 1.
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