How Singapore stands to gain from Hong Kong’s troubles
is taken on the mayhem in Hong Kong—righteous rebellion or obscene rioting—it is a disaster for the territory’s economy. And if one place stands to benefit from Hong Kong’s troubles, it is that other self-governing, Chinese-majority, financial, commercial and shipping hub in East Asia: Singapore.
Some data are already available indicating the short-term impact of the unrest. In August the number of tourists entering Hong Kong fell by 39% overall compared with the same month last year. The number of mainland-Chinese tourists fell by 42%. Singapore, by contrast, saw an annual increase in tourists from China of 4% in August. Mainland China accounts for 21% of tourists visiting Singapore, but nearly 80% of visitors to Hong Kong.
The rich in Hong Kong and the rest of China have long found Singapore attractive. They like to invest in property there, sometimes as a possible bolthole. Since the beginning of 2017, mainland Chinese buyers have acquired more than 1,000 private homes in Singapore, despite a 20% stamp duty charged to foreigners.
Already, Singapore has a lead in asset-management, with $3.4trn under management at the end of 2018 compared with $3.1trn in Hong Kong. Even for wealthy Chinese who have managed to move capital out of the mainland, Hong Kong may appear uncomfortably within China’s reach. The worry is that Hong Kong will lose its edge in other activities, too, such as investment banking and equities trading.
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