What is the contrast between American states that cut off unemployment aid early and those who retained it?
ECONOMIC THEORY predicts that as unemployment insurance becomes more generous, fewer people will work. Assuming that wages on offer remain constant, as the amount that people can earn without a job grows, the comparative financial gain they reap from working shrinks. Moreover, if insurance is sufficient to cover necessities such as rent or mortgage payments and food, the unemployed can pass over less desirable job offers while they search for one they like.
On August 20th America’s Bureau of Labour Statistics released state-level employment numbers for July, the first full month of data since most of the cut-off states ended the additional aid. So far, stopping benefits does not appear to have yielded the effect these states’ governors desired. Between June and July, the share of working-age people in the cut-off states who were employed rose from 53.3% to 56.0%, a strong gain of 2.7 percentage points.
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