Satellite images gave researchers an unpredicted look at avulsions—when rivers abruptly shift.
In August 2008, the Koshi River—typically meandering from the Himalayan foothills of Nepal down into the plain of the Ganges, waxing and waning with the yearly monsoon—abruptly shifted some 75 miles eastward. The river broke its banks and inundated hundreds of villages in Nepal and the Indian state of Bihar.That part of the world is hardly unfamiliar with intense floods, but what happened in 2008 wasn’t just any flood. Rivers don’t often change courses with reckless abandon.
Indeed, there’s good reason to study avulsions. They leave behind fertile land in floodplains and help build diverse ecosystems in river deltas. But at the same time, their floods can devastate nearby human settlements. ArchaeologistsMost large rivers don’t flow freely anymoreDespite this, scientists haven’t really had a great grasp on what causes avulsions. They knew that avulsions tend to happen on rivers that carry large amounts of sediment.
The researchers think this kind of avulsion is more common on steeper rivers in deserts or in the tropics. And the floods that cause them are predicted to grow more common in a warming world.“Knowing where [avulsions] might happen is a big help,” says Passalacqua, “particularly if upstream communities may not have expected it otherwise.”
Meanwhile, rising sea levels are pushing at deltas from the other side. The result of all these processes is that the pressure on rivers—and the risk of avulsions farther upriver—is mounting.
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