Why the dollar may test 2018's low this year (via TradingNation)
Brown Brothers Harriman's Win Thin warns the nation's inability to contain the coronavirus pandemic as effectively as other countries is spooking the market.
"This is one of the rare occasions when Europe will actually outperform the U.S.," the firm's global head of global currency strategy told CNBC's "is on track for its seventh negative week in a row. It has declined more than 7% over the last three months. On Thursday, the index closed at 92.79. And, it may be about to drop further. Thin sees the greenback testing the 2018 low before year's end.
"I do suspect given the cyclicals, we'll test the downside of that range, and for the DXY [dollar index] that's around 88," said Thin. "So, we've got some ways to go." Thin turned bearish on the currency in April when the Federal Reserve began flooding the market with dollars as part of its aggressive virus relief plan."The debate is between whether it's a structural or cyclical decline," he said. "The Fed is being much more aggressive than other central banks, and the U.S. economy is likely to underperform in the coming months due to the pandemic. So to me, that's a cyclical issue.
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