One stock market signal suggests the US presidential race is tightening, Goldman Sachs says
Two crossed lines that form an 'X'. It indicates a way to close an interaction, or dismiss a notification.The trading activity of certain stocks is sending a signal to investors that the upcoming Presidential election this November is going to be close — and is getting closer, Goldman Sachs said on Friday.
Specifically, the recent outperformance of a basket of stocks with high corporate tax rates relative to its low-tax counterpart signals a recent preference for companies expected to benefit from a Republican victory. Further, the direct probability of Joe Biden's proposed tax hike has declined in recent weeks, although it remains the more likely outcome, Goldman data show.
"Education and clean energy stocks have moved in directions consistent with a rising probability of Democratic sweep," Goldman said. While corporate and tax hikes from the Biden administration would reduce 2021 S&P 500 earnings by 9% and likely hurt stocks, large fiscal expansion initiatives and less uncertainty with trade policy could be a tailwind for stocks, Goldman said.
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