Tornadoes have already been reported Sunday morning in Georgia and the risk across a wide region will persist through the afternoon and into the night.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the Deep South as having a level 3 out of 5 “enhanced risk” of severe weather. Montgomery and Auburn, Ala.; Jackson and Hattiesburg, Miss.; and Alexandria, La., are within the bull’s eye. A level 2 out of 5 risk covers areas as far east as Wilmington, N.C.
Later this week, severe thunderstorms may materialize across the Southern Plains on Thursday and again across the mid-South and Tennessee Valley by Friday.Thunderstorms on Sunday will have ample CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy — i.e., thunderstorm fuel — to work with. That means storm clouds can grow tall into an environment characterized by frigid air aloft. That will support the development of hail as large as lime-size with the strongest storms.
There will also be sufficient wind shear, or a change of wind speed and/or direction with height, to encourage thunderstorms to rotate. As winds about a mile above the ground strengthen in the afternoon, the risk of strong tornadoes will grow.Thunderstorms will propagate west to east along a stalled front, riding along it like rail cars on a train track. That could lead to a few sporadic instances of flash flooding as downpours repeatedly move over the same areas.
While computer models have been waffling with regard to where the jackpot of rainfall will be, and to what extent an upper-air disturbance to the northwest may play a role, there is a possibility for high-end rainfall totals. “If the … scenario pans out where the storms stay with the main surface front, then there’s some potential for extreme rainfall totals exceeding 6 inches,” the Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center cautioned.
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