A new analysis of COVID-19 cases in Africa shows that for most of the continent's countries the rate of infection was likely much higher than reported in the initial stages, found York University researchers.
Case counts reported by most African countries suggest the virus spread slowly during the early part of the pandemic, but the researchers say those numbers likely didn't capture the true extent of the spread.
To get a better handle on the real number of those infected, the researchers used an epidemiological mathematical model, along with observed data, for 54 countries in Africa to estimate the number of hidden infections. Data on cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to build an epidemic profile for Africa of the initial stage of COVID-19.
or more people with asymptomatic symptoms than in a population that has a higher percentage of seniors," says Postdoctoral Fellow Qing Han, lead researcher on the paper."This suggests the possibility of a lower rate of detection of the virus." "Counties that showed a R0 of less than one, which basically means there was no outbreak, likely have a much higher true R0. Not investigating the underreported figures could cause an underestimation of the severity and magnitude of the epidemic locally in each country," says Han.