A new study published Tuesday shows that keeping global warming below the key 1.5°C threshold by the end of the century will require not just halting the construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure, but also shutting down many existing sites.
shows that keeping global warming below the key 1.5°C threshold by the end of the century will require not just halting the construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure, but also shutting down many existing sites.estimates that 40% of fossil fuel reserves at currently operational development sites across the globe must be left in the ground if the world is to have a 50-50 chance of adequately slashing carbon emissions and limiting warming to 1.5°C or below.
If fossil fuel reserves at existing sites are extracted, the researchers find, nations will “substantially exceed” the 1.5°CThe paper, which relies on a commercial model of the world’s 25,000 oil and gas fields, leaves unanswered the question of precisely which existing development sites should be shut down, noting that “it requires considerations of equity and of the best mechanisms to manage a just transition away from fossil fuel jobs and revenues within and between countries.
“Our findings show that halting new extraction projects is a necessary step, but still not enough to stay within our rapidly dwindling carbon budget,” said Greg Muttitt of the International Institute for Sustainable Development, a co-author of the new study. “Some existing fossil fuel licenses and production will need to be revoked and phased out early.”
“Governments need to start tackling head-on how to do this in a fair and equitable way, which will require overcoming opposition from fossil fuel interests,” Muttitt added.
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