From Mauritius to Montenegro, small nations that depend on foreign visitors, face economic devastation as enduring travel restrictions force would-be tourists to stay at home.
The drop in demand is expected to have a severe impact on employment levels. Global job losses could reach more than 100 million, the WTTC has estimated.
Tourism accounts for more than 15% of jobs in Mexico and Philippines, while some economies may suffer a further hit from reduced remittances from those working overseas in the industry.For many countries, a tourism revival will only occur when restrictions on international travel are eased. Out of 217 global destinations, 72% have placed a complete stop on international tourism, said the UNWTO.
That leaves countries such as Bahrain, Montenegro, Chad and Palestine exposed as international travellers account for more than 90% of tourism.Factoring in the importance of tourism to GDP and employment and their reliance on foreign, rather than domestic visitors, Hong Kong, Thailand, Mexico and Turkey were most exposed, Priscila Robledo at Continuum Economics said.
And with relatively little outbound tourism historically, those countries will not see any benefit to current accounts as a result of the lockdown, she said.Destinations closer to large populations, such as Croatia and Hungary, may recover better over a two-to-three-year time horizon, S&P said, and ultimately the biggest hit may be to business travel.
“Consumers may crave far away destinations after months of being cooped up,” Hasnain Malik at Tellimer said. “But businesses may never again allow flights to so easily displace video conference calls.”
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