The impact of recent trade actions won't be felt immediately, but there will be surprises
Share to twitterThe impact of recent trade actions, such as the U.S. imposition of licensing requirements on Huawei, the imminent increase in tariffs on a broad category of Chinese goods, or veiled threats of export controls by China on rare earth minerals will take time to be felt. There are some obvious reasons, and some less obvious.
Employees work on a mobile phone assembly line at a Huawei Technologies Co. production base in Dongguan, China. Photographer: Qilai Shen/BloombergThe second and more interesting reason is that many firms don’t know who some of their upstream suppliers are … yet. Because so many modern technologies are extremely complex, a modular division of labor has evolved in which specialist companies focus on a narrow slice of a bigger, more complex system.
Sometimes it takes an emergency to highlight the fragility of these complex arrangements. When a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the east coast of Tōhoku, Japan, in March 2011, it heavily damaged the Renesas Electronics semiconductor wafer fabrication facility in Naka, a major supplier of chips used in engine controllers.
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