An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
A Tropical Storm WARNING: Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel ... Pinar del Rio Cuba. A Storm Surge WATCH: Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay... A Hurricane WATCH: Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay... A Tropical Storm WATCH: Isle of Youth Cuba ... South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida & Dry Tortugas, Florida.
The American GFS model - which was late to the “party” - takes a pretty strong hurricane more north with a landfall on the Central Panhandle of Florida early Wed. close to Apalachicola... some 200+ miles to the west of the European model. The Canadian forecast model is similar to the European, just slightly more to the north. The UKMET model is slower & weaker with a landfall just about squarely on the corner of the Big Bend or about half way between the European & GFS landfall points.
moisture - plenty. There’s lots of moisture present. Upon approach to land followed by the landfall, dry continental air will have a tendency to wrap around the underside leaving a tropical cyclone heavily weighted on its north & northeast side at midweek following landfall. REMEMBER THAT THE FORECAST CONE ONLY INVOLVES THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE STORM. DON’T GET FIXATED ON THE CENTER & REALIZE IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL EXTEND FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
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