In dreaming of Texas, Democrats may overlook states where their electoral prospects are better
sweltering day in Austin, but that has not deterred Emily Clark from spending hours registering students at the University of Texas to vote, dressed in a banana costume. Ms Clark is a volunteer forTexas, a group that registers and campaigns for young people and minorities in state politics. Democrats have high hopes that groups such as’s number-crunching suggests such thoughts are, as Texans say, too big for their britches.
Those who foresee a “blue Texas” point to demography as the primary reason for the state’s supposed competitiveness. While increasing turnout among minority and young voters has helped Democrats rack up big margins in cities, moderates in the suburbs—especially women—have been moving leftwards too. These patterns combined to make the state competitive in last year’s mid-term elections.
Most election handicappers calculate the partisan lean of a state by comparing overall vote share in the state with what happened nationwide. This method can skew things, because not all members of Congress have an opponent. This distorts the numbers, because would-be Republican voters who live in a district where there is no Republican candidate do not count .
Texans will not just be voting for the president next year, though. Thirty-six congressional representatives, one senator and 150 members of the state House will also be up for re-election. According to Julie Oliver, a Democratic candidate in Texas’s 25th congressional district who also ran for the seat in 2018, progressives have tangible hope in a handful of these down-ballot races.
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