The U.S. birth rate has been trending downwards over the past 15 years — so the news that the number of births actually rose in 2021 is making headlines. But the change is likely to be more of a baby blip than a baby boom.
Despite the 1% increase from the previous year,"the number of births in 2021 was 2% lower than the number of births in 2019," according to the NCHS, which is part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"I am more inclined to see the drop and rebound in births associated with the pandemic as blips on a long-term trend," Kearney told NPR via email.The first of those blips came in 2020, when the pandemic upended daily life for millions of people. That brought a"baby bust," Kearney said, with would-be parents confronted by a spike in unemployment, widespread uncertainty and coronavirus-related restrictions.
"As it turns out, the drop in births associated with the early months of the pandemic was largely transitory, meaning that many of those 'missing births' were pushed into 2021," she said. All but 11 U.S. states saw births rise in the second half of 2021-- and only two saw declines. Those kind of differences, Kearney has previously said, seem to be linked more to economic concerns rather than the scope of the outbreak.
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