The Census Bureau is predicting an older and more diverse America in the coming decades, along with other projections through the year 2100.
FILE - Katie O'Brien holds her son, Bennett, on Tuesday, Aug. 29, 2023, in the birthing room where she delivered him in July at the Henry County Medical Center in Paris, Tenn. By the end of the century, the U.S. population will be declining without substantial immigration, senior citizens will outnumber children and the share of white residents who aren't Hispanic will be less than half of the population, according to population projections released Thursday, Nov. 9, 2023 by the U.S.
“As most demographers realize, population projection is not an inevitable destiny, just a glimpse into a possible future,” Ong said. “'Seeing' that possibility also opens up opportunities for action." But that optimism is tempered by existential worries that things seem to be getting worse, including climate change and gun violence.
The numeric superiority of seniors will mean fewer workers. Combined with children, they'll represent 40% of the population. Only around 60% of the population that is working age — between 18 and 64 — will be paying the bulk of taxes for Social Security and Medicare."Natural increase" in the U.S. will go negative in 2038, meaning deaths outpacing births due to an aging population and declines in fertility. The Census projects 13,000 more deaths than births in the U.S.
When immigration is instead driven by the push of climate change, social tensions exacerbated by authoritarian rulers and gangs, as well as fluctuating anti-immigrant sentiment in the U.S., it is harder to predict, said Manuel Pastor, a professor of sociology and American Studies & Ethnicity at the University of Southern California.
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