Without Britain, the dynamics of the EU's debate have changed. Budgetary hawks no longer have a big ally
, David Cameron hands power to a loyal chancellor, George Osborne. Upon taking office, Mr Osborne faces a global pandemic and Britain’s deepest recession since 1706. To cap it all, an unwelcome proposal from Brussels arrives: a €750bn recovery fund earmarked for the struggling economies of southern Europe, paid for with debt issued by the bloc. Britain is on the hook for about €90bn.
Yet even without the British, the path is not entirely clear. Austria, Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark — the so-called “frugal four” — have criticised the scheme. Each has a veto in the coming talks, like every other member state. In a paper, the foursome demanded that aid must be paid back, not granted outright, and must come with strict promises of economic reform. Any fund will be negotiated as an add-on to the’s €1.
Without Britain, the dynamics of the debate have changed. Budgetary hawks have far less weight than when they could rely on Britain’s support. Now they have no big ally. The crucial shift came when Germany, traditionally opposed to mutualised debt, gave its backing to the fund. Together the foursome have only 42m citizens—not even a tenth of the’s population and smaller than Spain’s.
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