The Fed's favorite inflation gauge is cooling off
Monday that the price index for personal consumption expenditures, excluding volatile categories like food and energy, was unchaged in March after edging 0.1% higher in the previous month. That marked the slowest year-over-year increase since the beginning of 2018.
"If the Fed hikes this year, it will be because of accelerating wages, not the inflation rate at the time," Shepherdson said. Higher energy prices could also boost headline inflation numbers in the coming months, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley's wealth management global investment committee.
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