Gold prices could forge ahead to $4,000 per ounce in the next three years, but factors such as the development of a coronavirus vaccine and the November U.S. elections could change the fortunes of the precious metal, analysts say.
While Yung-yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management — U.S., agreed that there are many factors supporting gold, he pointed to two big events that could change the direction of prices.
"We're just cautious extrapolating these current factors ... especially when we know there are two big events on the horizon that could change that trajectory. One is of course the vaccine development, and the other is the elections," he told CNBC on Monday. "We think ... especially the vaccine has potential to shift some of those positive factors that are working right now in the favor of gold," he said.
However, in a note last week, financial data provider Refinitiv pointed to U.S. political developments that could disrupt financial markets and support the gold rally. "The elections are now less than 100 days away and Trump had recently suggested delaying it, raising concerns he will seek to circumvent voting in a contest where he currently trails his opponent by double digits," wrote Refinitiv's Cameron Alexander, manager of precious metals research. He was referring to Democratic candidate Joe Biden, whoIn the 2016 presidential elections, after Trump's surprise win over Democrat Hillary Clinton investors fled to gold, a safe haven asset.
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