The COVID-19 death tolls are horrifying, but these figures may actually be significantly underestimating the ultimate public-health trauma delivered by the pandemic, perhaps by several orders of magnitude. dwallacewells writes
An Italian man suffering from fatigue after recovering from COVID-19 undergoes an ultrasound. Photo: Getty Images The official American death toll from the coronavirus pandemic now stands at 170,000, and while there are some encouraging indications that the growth of the disease is slowing and the fatality rate declining, the U.S. death toll is likely to grow to 227,000 by just November 1, according to Youyang Gu — to date the most accurate modeler of COVID-19 in the country.
The second, more mind-bending revision comes from our emerging understanding of the long-term effects of COVID-19. In the spring, our picture of the disease was dominated by hospitalizations, deaths, and recoveries; most Americans following things closely probably understood the full course of illness to last about a month, start to finish.
This is a shift in conceptual perspective that isn’t just about kind — acute versus chronic — but scale. Assuming the early research holds, even somewhat, it would mean a long-term impact staggeringly larger than the acute crisis we have all been living through in terror. And it would mean these long-term effects aren’t medical curiosities to be considered on the margins of the disease — but in fact the most common outcome, by far.
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