Expectations for a rate hike this year have fallen below those for a cut, according to Bloomberg data.
The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, to the Economic Club of New York, appears on a television screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2018.Previously, market watchers had been anticipating two interest rate increases in 2019.Wall Street now sees a Fedral Reserve rate cut as more likely for its next move.
Expectations for a rate hike this year have fallen below those for a cut. Bloomberg data shows a zero percent chance the Fed raises rates this year and a 27.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. In January, the central bank signaled it could be nearing the end of its most recent tightening cycle. "We can't rule out a dot plot showing zero hikes, but the danger for the FOMC in taking such a drastic step is that markets would then take any soft data over the next few weeks as an open door to start pushing hard for easing," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Still, some see a possibility for at least one of the two rate increases that had previously been penciled in for the year. There have been signs of upward pressure on wages, with average hourly earnings jumping by the most in a decade in February.
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