The oil market might be misinterpreting the recent rise in Libya's oil exports, which is more likely to represent a run-up to the next clash between clans rather than a conflict resolution.
Claims that the rival governments in Libya will soon resolve their differences and entirely lift the blockade on oil exports put in place by the Haftar clan in the country’s east seem hard to believe. Two weeks ago, we saw Libya ’s oil exports plummet by over 80% week on week, with the NOC canceling cargoes. For the past week, exports have reportedly ticked up to an estimated 550,000 bpd, from the 1-1.2 million bpd Libya was exporting prior to the August 26 blockade.
What they mean by that is they cut a deal with their various militia backers in these headquarters to hand control over to the interior ministry for a unified front against the Haftar clan should they attempt again to take the city. The Haftar clan is busy, as well, and still making oil money through a private Benghazi-based oil company Arkenu Oil that is being allowed free reign to bypass the blockade and export to international markets.
Crude Oil Oil Prices Haftar Geopolitics Exports
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