The total number of Mexican-born immigrants in America has stopped climbing and started to fall
Pilsen, a Chicago neighbourhood that is home to successive waves of immigrants, and two stories unfold in the surrounding streets. The first is seen in the abundance of, in bright murals of Mexican cowboys and dancing women, or in remittance and travel shops that advertise their business ties to Mexico. The other story is punctuated by vinyl record shops and vegan cafés on fashionable 18th Street. In 2000 the district’s population was 89% Hispanic and notably poor.
Such stories reflect broader changes for many Mexican-Americans, especially in bigger cities like Chicago. For one thing, their overall numbers are falling, after four decades of growth. Andrew Selee of the Migration Policy Institute in Washington points out that since 2007 a tidal wave of Mexicans going to America has slowed to a dribble as unauthorised migrants have been replaced by legal ones.
In fact the total number of Mexican-born immigrants in America has stopped climbing and started to fall, notes Randy Capps, also from. In 2016-17 alone the number fell from 11.6m to 11.3m, a sharp dip that is probably continuing. That is despite the lowest unemployment in America in half a century. Previous spells of strong growth always drew in Mexican labour. No longer. Higher incomes, more jobs and an ageing population in Mexico have all shrunk its pool of potential migrants.
What does this mean for America? Mr Selee is hopeful. He sees Mexicans following the path set by southern and eastern Europeans, predicting a “huge change” in the next 20 years, as far fewer Spanish-speaking migrants come in. That could be a boon to those already there. One lesson after previous decades of high migration ended is that it can herald a period when existing migrants—and, importantly, their American-born children—integrate successfully.
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