How much is Juan Soto worth over 15 years? Way more than $440 million. Tom Verducci on Washington’s bind with its best player
. Yes, a 15-year guarantee reduces the AAV, but such length is a more club-friendly feature because it reduces the contract’s luxury tax hit.
So how much is Soto worth over 15 years? Let’s start some back of the envelope math with this: His next two arbitration-eligible seasons before free agency are worth about $55 million. For his next 13 seasons, let’s use Machado as his comp, as conservative as that may be. Machado reached free agency at 26. At 26, he was not nearly the hitter Soto is now, trailing Soto in OPS and OPS+ . But Machado’s defense and baserunning boosted his WAR entering free agency to 33.8.
Run the same exercise with Stanton, who as a corner outfielder is a better positional comp. Two years ahead of free agency,. Adjust the AAV for inflation, stack 13 years of it over the two arbitration years and you get $462 million. But Stanton is a player who was far short of Soto through his age 23 season for OPS+ and WAR .On the face of it, the Nats made a bold move with their offer. They already have come up from a pre-lockout offer reported by ESPN of $350 million over 13 years.
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