It is not that the world is leaving China; more that China is becoming a world unto itself
The pandemic has changed all that. In the first half of 2019, China’s busy agents recorded over 344m border crossings between the mainland and the rest of the world . In the first half of this year, that number was down by over 80%, according to official statistics. Mr Kostrzewa has not visited in almost 22 months. “It’s funny to be talking about this in the past tense,” he says.
Talks, in a future conditional tense, between Hong Kong and the mainland have so far failed to ease travel between the city and the rest of China. But officials now say a pilot scheme might soon allow small numbers of vaccinated people to travel to the mainland without quarantine. If the scheme works, some of Mr Kostrzewa’s favourite checkpoints in Shenzhen could reopen by June, according to theFor the rest of the world, visiting China will remain an ordeal.
The benefits of China’s zero-covid strategy can be measured in lives saved and infections averted. The economic cost of the country’s self-isolation is harder to quantify. The travel restrictions are making life harder for the international “facilitators” that make cross-border business tick, argues one investor in Shanghai. Remote communication can maintain existing relationships, but some things are better done face-to-face.
Some know-how is also tacit, embodied in people or teams. To transmit this know-how it is necessary to move the minds that carry it. Increasing spending on business travel by 10% raises productivity by 0.2-0.5% in the visited sector, according to a study of American travellers by Mariacristina Piva of the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and her co-authors.
Foreign direct investment in China has so far remained strong, thanks to the economy’s early recovery from the pandemic. And few multinationals are leaving. Some foreign firms may even localise activities done outside China to keep doing business there.
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