.MaddowBlog: Gerrymandering is a problem for Democrats. The generic ballot poll is a bigger problem. But the party isn't doomed just yet.
On the surface, Democratic candidates fared quite well in the 2020 elections, winning control of the White House and the U.S. Senate, while holding onto their majority in the U.S. House. But just below the surface, these gains did not translate into down-ballot successes — leaving Republicans in powerful positions in state offices nationwide.
characterized this as a dynamic in which the GOP could have"a nearly insurmountable advantage in the 2022 midterm elections."To be sure, it's a problem that Democrats are positioned to lose power even if voters cast ballots the same way they did a year ago. To overcome this structural hurdle, Democrats would likely need a substantial national advantage, since winning slightly more votes might still lead to less power.
In case this isn't obvious, if Democrats were ahead on the generic ballot by two or three percentage points, that would also be a problem for the party, because the lead would be too small to overcome the GOP's structural advantage, given the unlevel playing field.
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