A double-dip recession would significantly heighten the risks for an already debilitated U.S. economy.
Many businesses are also tempering their optimism. The data firm Womply found that even in Texas and Florida, states that are being especially aggressive about reopening their economies, businesses are moving slowly. Womply found only a “small-to-negligible drop” in the share of Texas and Florida businesses that remain closed.
At Big Buzz, a health care marketing consultancy in Denver, CEO Wendy Phillips is expecting “more a W-shaped than a V-shaped” rebound. Phillips has reduced her staff from eight to six, two of whom kept their full-time jobs only after the government delivered a $105,000 loan under a rescue program for small businesses.
Frankel at the Harvard Kennedy School and others worry that state and local governments, hemorrhaging tax revenue, will be forced to make growth-stunting cuts just as a recovery might be straining to gain traction. Likewise, U.S. authorities declared premature victory over the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, only to see it return, deadlier than before. In the current pandemic, South Korea eased restrictions as cases dropped. But on Saturday,warned that easing stay-at-home orders and allowing people to mingle more freely would mean that “new COVID-19 cases and deaths will rebound in late May.”
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