From Rhode Island to Hawaii, FiveThirtyEight takes a look at how Pres. Trump’s net approval rating in every state compares to the state's partisan lean.
A Republican president with a net approval of +2 in a D+7 state has a PARP of +9 . If the president were Democratic, the PARP would be -5 .
* Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. The partisan leans here were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet.
Meanwhile, the bottom of the list — where Trump is underperforming partisanship — is filled mostly with non-Southern red states like North Dakota, Utah and Kansas. This may seem like a big problem for Trump, but it’s probably not. He simply has more room to fall in red states than in purple or blue ones. Indeed, if there’s anywhere that Trump can afford to lose fans, it’s in these states; they are so conservative that there’s no real danger of their going blue in 2020. rank in the table above.
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