OPINION: The stock market will be booming next year because of a good enough vaccine and huge economic stimulus deals from the Fed and Congress.
Stock markets love to take everyone by surprise, and less than a year from now a very big surprise will have played out: Stocks will be a lot higher by June as the economy moves into overheat mode.1. By the turn of the year we will have vaccines for COVID-19. They won’t be perfect. But they will be good enough at protecting the most vulnerable — so most people can get back to work and the economy can begin to repair.
The key takeaway: We get vaccines that are “good enough” as early as a few months from now, and more by the turn of the year. This would help get the economy back on track, because the most vulnerable could be protected. That would bring down the hospitalization and death rates — the whole reason we’ve been in lockdown. “If you have a vaccine that provides a 60% reduction in symptoms, I think that will lead to significantly less disease burden, less hospitalizations and less death,” says Yee. “The early data are very promising.
The big four These are a little behind the big three in timing, but their potential vaccines are well advanced.Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +0.80% will launch Phase III studies of its vaccine candidate Ad26 in September. It will post data by the end of the year or early 2021, says Yee. Early results from primate studies suggest effectiveness. Ad26 may work with just one shot, a plus.Sanofi SNY, -0.34% SAN, -0.
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