From rogue Russia to the energy crunch, ianbremmer on the top global risks for the world in the coming year
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin via video link in Beijing, capital of China, Dec. 30, 2022.Bremmer is a foreign affairs columnist and editor-at-large at TIME. He is the president of Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy, and
He teaches applied geopolitics at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and his most recent book ishreats to the future of democracy look overrated these days, given the glaring leadership weaknesses now evident in Russia, China, and Iran. Add relief that the U.S. midterm election came off with few of the stresses we saw in 2020. And don’t overlook increasingly strong cohesion in EU policymaking.
Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling will escalate. Kremlin-affiliated hackers will ramp up increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks on Western firms, governments, and infrastructure. Russia will intensify its offensive against Western elections by systematically supporting and funding disinformation and extremism. Attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will continue.
We see risks in three areas this year, all stemming from Maximum Xi. The ill-effects of centralized decision-making on public health will continue with COVID’s spread. Xi’s drive for state control of China’s economy will produce arbitrary decisions, policy volatility, and heightened uncertainty for a country already weakened by two years of extreme Covid controls.
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