OPINION: The U.S. birth rate among women between the ages of 15 and 44 dropped almost 20% from 2007 to 2020. The decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic or policy changes.
Until the Great Recession, the number of babies born per woman in the U.S. had been stable for three decades.
However, the U.S. birth rate has fallen precipitously since the 2007 Great Recession, with no signs of reversing. This decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic or policy changes. It is reflective of lower childbearing rates across successive cohorts.
But the decline in annual birth rates since 2007 is consistent with more recent cohorts of women having fewer births. Those cohorts have not completed their childbearing years yet, but the number of births they would have to have at older ages to catch up to the lifetime childbearing rates of earlier cohorts is so large that it seems unlikely they will do so.
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