Recession risks are climbing, Barclays warns (via TradingNation)
"Based on the data that we have on hand and understanding how the economy tends to evolve, we would put the number around 25 to 30% chance over say the next four-quarter horizon," he said of the chances for a recession.
In any given year, Gapen estimates there's a 10% chance of a recession. He suggests 2019 is no ordinary year.Gapen sees the next crucial batch of economic data will come from the labor market. He believes it will provide valuable information into the strength of personal spending, which is about 70% of the economy. If personal spending stalls, it would drive recession odds even higher, Gapen warns.
"We think risks are distributed to the downside where we can get a surprise in any one of these numbers," Gapen said. "It could shift sentiment pretty quickly."
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