There's a 50% chance the U.S.-China 'phase one' deal could fall apart in one year.
Richard Martin, managing director at IMA Asia, said there are two reasons why the agreement could fall apart: Limited success stories of government-mandated trade in the past, and provisions that allow the U.S. and China to walk away from their deal.
He said there's a 50% chance the U.S.-China "phase one" trade deal could survive its first year — but that probability falls to 25% in the second year. Still, he said the agreement has — for now — lifted some uncertainty in the global economy and allow companies to carry out business decisions that were put on hold over the past year.
President Donald Trump, and Chinas Vice Premier Liu He, the countrys top trade negotiator, shake hands after signing trade agreements between the US and China during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC on January 15, 2020.There's a 50% chance the U.S.-China "phase one" trade deal could survive its first year — but that probability falls to 25% in the second year, a business consultant said on Monday.
Richard Martin, managing director at management consulting firm IMA Asia, said there are two reasons why the agreement could fall apart within those time frames: Limited success stories of government-mandated trade in the past, and provisions that allow the
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