A report released by the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force warns that 21 states are now in the “red zone” and need to take aggressive steps to slow the spread of COVID-19. But new guidelines from Harvard University show the task force's recommendations may be too weak to suppress the
A report released this week by the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force warns that 21 states are now in the “red zone” and need to take aggressive steps to slow the spread of COVID-19.
The White House task force and the Harvard researchers are relying on the same data. They’re using similar color-coded risk charts. They even share a goal: to provide clear metrics that will “help communities determine the severity of the outbreak they are responding to,” as the Harvard initiative puts it, then offer “broad guidance on the intensity of control efforts needed based on these COVID risk levels.
Story continuesHarvard and the Trump task force define the “red zone” differently, but both base their color-coded risk levels on a key metric: the seven-day average of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people. The Harvard team, meanwhile, has four risk levels. Red is any place that averaged more than 25 new daily cases per 100,000 people over the last seven days. Orange is between 10 and 25. Yellow is between one and 10. And green is fewer than one.
But nowhere does the Trump task force say that public officials in a red zone should require residents to “stay at home.” So do an additional 14 states, including several — such as New Mexico , Nebraska and Maryland — that seem to be getting worse fast. In on-the-cusp California , it might mean holding off statewide but requiring residents of orange-zone Los Angeles County to stay at home because they are surrounded by four red-zone counties: Kern , Riverside , San Bernardino and Ventura .
But the point the Harvard group is making is that even if spread is slowing, there’s still too much virus circulating to ease up now. The goal should be suppression, they say: striving for zero cases instead of just somewhat mitigating the current spread.
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