There's every reason to believe the 2024 presidential race could be just as tight and 2020. In a closely divided country where voter attitudes have hardened, the outcome of a likely Biden-Trump rematch rests on just eight states.
Former President Donald Trump in 2016 won one of the biggest upsets in American political history by squeezing out just enough votes in key Electoral College states. Trump's victory over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton was decided by about 77,000 votes out of 136 million ballots cast. He won Pennsylvania by 0.7 percentage points , Wisconsin by 0.7 points , and Michigan by 0.2 points .
Ron Nehring, a GOP political consultant, told the Washington Examiner that winning in 2024 would require bickering Republican factions to unite, specifically MAGA followers of Trump and supporters of the late Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, an embodiment of the traditional party establishment. Recent down-ballot races offer both parties hope. The 2022 midterm elections showed Republicans are still competitive in the state as Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger prevailed over their Democratic opponents by large margins, Gillespie said. Democrats, though, hold both Peach State Senate seats.Michigan has gone for both parties in the two most recent presidential races.
Biden beat Trump by a 2.8% margin in 2020. Still, a third-party candidate could eat into the pool of people that vote for one of the two parties. Democrats are concerned the Washington, D.C.-based group No Labels could run a candidate who would siphon off votes from Biden. And professor Cornel West is already running to Biden's left as a Green Party candidate.
During the 2020 election, Biden won the majority vote for every voting group except white voters and voters 45 and older, securing his win in the state. Biden ultimately flipped the state blue again in 2020, largely due to voter turnout in population-dense areas like Philadelphia and its suburbs. As both parties' front-runners have netted a win in the state, it’ll likely be a state both sides will target in the 2024 election, Gillespie said.
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