Top economist lowers recession risk for 2020 but says hurdles remain via TradingNation)
"The deceleration in manufacturing seems to be abating. That's the good news," said Gapen. "The bad news in that report is the services side of the economy seems a little weaker than expected."
In any given year, Gapen estimates there's a 10% chance of a recession. If Washington and Beijing can agree to a trade deal, he suggests 2020 could see a more normalized risk because it would give U.S. businesses more confidence to start spending again.On Friday, U.S. Chamber of Commerce head of international affairsmay not get signed before additional tariffs begin on Dec. 15. It's supposed to tackle intellectual property, financial services concerns and agricultural products.
"What the market and economy needs to know is we've hit peak tariffs and they're likely to come lower," said Gapen. "So momentum on that front has stalled out a bit.""I still think on balance the comments around U.S. trade discussions are positive," Gapen said.
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