Experts are investigating how the coronavirus spread through the US – but pinpointing its arrival is nearly impossible.
The US is nearing the bleak milestone of 100,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths. But the actual death toll will probably have hit that figure days before the official tallies reflect it. And despite scientists’ best efforts, that date may for ever go unmarked.
Coronavirus cases were also identified in California in late January, initially among those who had recently travelled to Wuhan. By late February, California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, said officials were monitoring more than 8,400 patients – but the state had only 200 testing kits. “Absolutely there’s a chance that there were more infections that resulted in death, at a time when we didn’t know about this novel coronavirus,” said Andrew Badley, chair of the Mayo Clinic’s Covid-19 research task force. “As we do more testing, I think it would be quite likely that we will find cases that go back several months in North America.
Elsewhere, researchers are hoping to learn more by studying the virus’s genetic makeup. “All viruses have the ability to mutate and change a little bit over time,” said Badley. By tracing different strains of the virus, and working out the rate at which the virus tends to change, researchers can estimate when each strain was introduced to a region, Bradley explained.
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