China's economic growth is expected to slow to a near 30-year low of 6.2% t...
BEIJING - China’s economic growth is expected to slow to a near 30-year low of 6.2% this year and cool further to 5.9% in 2020, a Reuters poll showed, underlining the stiff challenge faced by Beijing even as it steps up stimulus amid a bruising Sino-U.S. trade war.
The poll of 83 analysts also forecast third-quarter growth at 6.1% year-on-year, lower from 6.2% in the last survey done in July and a touch below the 6.2% pace in the second quarter. “Should labor market deteriorate sharply in late 2019 and early 2020, policy support may intensify in March next year,” Tao Wang, China economist at UBS, said in a note.
Chinese central bank governor Yi Gang said late in September there was no urgent need to implement large interest rate cuts following Beijing’s reiteration that it would not use “flood-like” stimulus measures.The outlook is unlikely to change for the better anytime soon even as tensions in the protracted trade war between Beijing and Washington have eased somewhat. U.S.
Analysts expect the PBOC to deliver another 50 basis-point RRR cut in the fourth quarter, and two more RRR reductions in the first half of 2020, according to the poll. Economists expect the central bank to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.35 percent through at least the end of 2020.
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