From the Archives: Scientists are using dendroclimatology to investigate megadroughts in the western U.S., and the trees are telling a disturbing tale.
, the topic garnering more of my attention is dendroclimatology. This fascinating science uses tree rings to reconstruct ancient precipitation, temperature, and other climatic variables. Unlike various instruments for tracking weather, tree rings provide researchers with a record going back hundreds or even thousands of years.
Instrument-based precipitation and temperature records in the U.S. Southwest date back only to the late 1800s. For decades, the number of instruments was small, and they were widely dispersed across a vast area. The data they provide is therefore not very good for evaluating climate variability across space and through time. Tree-ring data, on the other hand, is highly useful for this kind of big-picture analysis.
Tree rings indicate there was another 22-year megadrought from 1571 to 1592 that was nearly as dry but not as hot as the current conditions. Anthropogenic climate change makes the deleterious effects of today’s megadrought that much worse, for it is significantly hotter now than it was in the late 16th century. Indeed, Park and colleagues suggest the current megadrought would be only aboutdifference when it comes to soil moisture and sustainability.
The instrumental stream-flow data they employed to inform the compact came from a 22-year period between 1900 and 1921. In an almost unbelievable twist of fate, the Colorado River enjoyed a significantly higher stream flow during that 22-year period than at any other period in the last 500 years! We now know this through tree-ring analyses.
To summarize, tree-ring analysis demonstrates that: the megadrought puts the U.S. Southwest in unprecedented and uncharted climatological territory, and the allocation of the area’s largest and most important water source was based on data from an unusually wet period and therefore would be insufficient to supply this now-booming region even if it weren’t in a megadrought. You simply cannot make this stuff up.
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