We're watching two areas in the tropics that may develop in the week ahead. One of them will bring rain to Texas.
In this case, the NHC suggests development could occur by early week in the area circled in the map below. Over the past several days, many computer forecast models have also been suggesting development is possible. of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next five days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance.
Beyond that, forecast models suggest the system will continue moving west or west-northwest into the Caribbean Sea late week. It's far too soon to tell what, if any, impacts it may have in the Caribbean.One reason development is possible: a pair of factors that usually work against tropical storm wannabes in this part of the Atlantic Basin early in the season might not be as strong this time.
Forecast models also suggest dry air may not be as much of a factor as it can be this early in the season.
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